“The Recent Liberalization and Possible Futures of Taiwain in the Shadow of China” (Salon on October 1st, 2005)

What is at the root of recent tensions across the Taiwan Strait after many years of quiet and stalemate? How might recent political and economic movements play out for Taiwan's future? We will explore the course and impact of Taiwan's recent political liberalization, which culminated in 2000 with the consolidation of a multi-party democracy and the electoral defeat of the long-ruling Kuomintang. We will also discuss the impact on Taiwan of China's economic liberalization and shift to global markets. Indeed, some observers envision a nascent linkage of Taiwan's managerial and technical skills with Hong Kong's capital markets and mainland China's resources and labor to form a "greater China" cemented by cultural and family ties. Taiwan's shoe, toy and textile industries have shifted production to the mainland, and its semiconductor industry is beginning to follow. However, political and military tensions have flared alongside this growing economic integration. How do these trends affect the possibility that mainland China might attempt a missile-based decapitation strike against Taiwan? Even in the absence of war, what kinds of long term political changes might accompany this growing belligerency?

The United States has played a significant role in this balance, most recently by dispatching the USS Nimitz and Independence during Chinese military exercises in 1996. The national unrest surrounding casualties in Iraq points to another question: are we prepared to have soldiers die defending Taiwan in the event of war with China? What is the US committed to by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act? What US interests are served or harmed by growing tensions there? And how might the US and Taiwan change their respective views of the other over the coming years?